In the aftermath of the World Wars and Cold War, the international community sought the creation of a new world order through multilateralism characterised by cooperation, diplomacy, and maintenance of peace and security without the use of force. A new world order of mutual cooperation, inclusivity, equality and partnership seemed to have begun with the pursuit of common goals to foster a more peaceful, prosperous, stable and sustainable world. That illusion was shattered, first by Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, then its more recent military aggression against Ukraine in 2022. We have watched with dismay Israel’s genocidal war against Gaza and are horrified as war ravages Sudan, a conflict which goes largely unreported, eclipsed by events elsewhere.
As Donald Trump issues a rash of executive orders, several, including the freeze on foreign aid, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and exit from the WHO will have severe implications for the most vulnerable parts of the world. Africa already suffers disproportionately from the negative effects of climate change, while the WHO has been vital in emergencies like Ebola, COVID and mpox. Trump’s refrain of ‘drill baby drill!’ could expose oil-dependent African economies like Nigeria and Angola to deflated oil and gas prices as the US becomes an even more aggressive competitor in the global energy market.
These decisions have left humanitarian agencies reeling, while multilateral organisations are being forced to reassess funding and reliance on the US, not least because the US is consistently the world’s largest humanitarian donor. At risk is the essential lifeline of undisrupted flow of aid for conflict-ridden nations like Sudan, Gaza and Ukraine, as well as the uninterrupted supply of medicines for programs like the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI). Launched by President George W. Bush in 2005, PMI strives to reduce the burden of malaria and help relieve poverty on the African continent. The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which is the global health funding by the US to address the worldwide HIV/AIDS epidemic and help save the lives of those suffering from the disease is also under fire. The decision to halt existing funding and issue stop-work orders is an unwelcome disruption to efforts aimed at combatting HIV globally, an initiative credited with saving some 25 million lives.
These actions prompt the question ‘how should Africa respond? Are there opportunities lurking amid the blizzard of Trump’s executive orders?
1. Partnership: While others eschew and disregard multilateralism, Trump 2:0 is an opportunity for Africa to unite. The Pan-African vision to create an African Economic Community through the implementation of The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a significant step. Integration across 55 African states would create the world’s largest free-trade area, a market of 1.4 billion people with a $3.4-trillion combined GDP, which is expected to more than double by 2050. Concerted efforts are required to foster stability and cooperation amongst member states and bring this beacon of hope to life.
2. Prosperity (Wealth creation): Africa is not poor! Possessing an abundance of conventional and critical minerals, historically, Africa has been at the bottom of the value chain, its resources developed to meet Western demands, creating dependence upon markets thousands of miles away. Africa’s commodities were regulated to serve Western interests. Decades after independence, Africa’s vast resources are still being exploited, this time not by an external imperial overlord, but by those with the mandate to govern the continent with equity, fairness and justice. A tendency towards neo-colonialism creates dependencies, shackling many sub-Saharan African countries to the bottom of the supply chain. Here, conventional and critical minerals are extracted primarily in their raw form, which tend to be lower value than processed products. These commodities are then exported for processing before being sold back to African consumers at a premium. The economic disparity is evident in a simple market value comparison: raw bauxite fetches a modest $65 per ton, whereas its processed counterpart, aluminium, commands a mighty $2,450 per ton as of end 2024.
The Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds an estimated 60% of the world’s known reserves of cobalt and accounts for 70% of global cobalt mining, sends 97% of its cobalt exports, mostly unprocessed, to China for processing before being used in smartphones and electric vehicles (EVs). This creates inefficiencies, extra emissions and crucial critical raw material and green sector dependencies on China. Heartbreakingly for the DRC, it is denied upward movement through the battery supply and value chain, diversification of its economy, additional revenue, wealth and job creation. China on the other hand, is highly protectionist of its critical minerals and prioritizes mineral processing for higher economic returns.
As the youngest continent on the planet, nurturing educated, employed, empowered and healthy African youth, unleashing their entrepreneurial drive would be game-changing. Africa must utilise its resources to power the world today and propel it towards a clean energy future.
3. Protection (Security): Sustainable development and economic prosperity are impossible to achieve in Africa without lasting peace. The AU’s ‘Silencing the Guns’ aspiration must address ongoing wars and strengthen conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms. Africa’s leadership should position the continent as an independent, equal, central and influential actor in the international system. Providing African solutions to African problems in security, statecraft, conflict resolution, while creating a cohesive, stable and strong economic community must be one of its defining features and hallmarks.
Security underscores the interconnectedness of threats and responses when addressing these challenges. Threats to security are mutually reinforcing and linked in two ways. First, there is a domino effect in the manner that threats feed on each other. For example, violent conflicts can lead to deprivation and poverty, which in turn could lead to resource depletion, infectious diseases, education deficits, etc. In Sudan ongoing violent conflict has led to displacement, shortages of food and healthcare.
Second, threats within a given country or area can spread into a wider region and have negative consequences for regional and international security. This interdependence implies that insecurities cannot be tackled in isolation through fragmented unilateral responses. Instead, human security requires comprehensive approaches that underscore the need for cooperative and multisectoral responses that unite the agendas of those dealing with security, development and human rights.
4. Politics (Leadership): Strong institutions that uphold democratic elections are indispensable. Civic education must cultivate an enlightened electorate, whose choices are competent, capable, citizen-centred leaders, who prioritise good governance. For far too long state capture, corruption, venality and nepotism have marred African politics. If we are to command influence and demonstrate Africa’s centrality to discussions on climate change, food, energy security, migration and other issues, our institutions, democratic processes and leaders must reflect our worth as a respected partner. With an estimated 1.4 billion people forecast to double by 2050, Africa can no longer be sidelined. Higher borrowing and refinancing costs levied upon Sub-Saharan African countries would suggest that being an African country attracts punitive rates that deepen debt and hinder progress and development. Having a seat at the G20 ensures that African perspectives are considered and reforms to the global financial system can be negotiated.
5. Population (Managed & Harnessed): Africa’s growth rate must keep pace with development; its human capital must be developed through sustained and strategic investment in social services, jobs, infrastructure, healthcare, housing, education, food and security.
An ‘anarchical international society’ where there is no overarching world government or arbiter and where sovereignty is sacrosanct creates a system where independent and armed sovereign states can harm each other. Such precarious circumstances dictate an obvious need to coordinate the actions of nations in the interests of the common good. This calls for creation of a of global governance and multilateral organisations to establish rules and practices which sovereign states must adhere to.
Great powers have always looked after their own interests. Trump’s actions are not new, his approach is just more unconventional and unpredictable. America has no plans to lose influence or cede its hegemonic position to China or any other nation. Russia, China, Europe, India, Turkey, the US etc. are all vying for influence and access to Africa’s rich resources. The barrage of seemingly unfavourable US decisions may be the opportunity and wakeup call that our leaders need, having ignored other such rude awakening like COVID, Ebola, coups etc. Africa must abstain from its diet of aid and loans, which are vehicles of modern-day enslavement and creeping suzerainty. The continent needs to prioritise its own interests and insulate itself against external shocks- Trumpian or otherwise.
MAGA could just as easily stand for ‘Make Africa Great Again’.
Read the full article in The Punch newspaper Trump 2.0: How should Africa respond?